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Abidjan, 24 October 2019, organised by the Mixed Migration Centre
The Rabat Process Secretariat, in collaboration with the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC), organised a side event in the margins of the Rabat Process workshop on migrant smuggling held on the 24th October 2019. This pilot scenario building exercise on future mixed migration in 2030 was for the first time tested in the framework of the Rabat Process and later under the Khartoum Process during the Senior Officials' Meeting organised on the 6th March 2020.

The objective of the exercise was to test a new tool and provide an insight into the process of scenario-building, which can inform a process of strategic futures analysis to better anticipate change, identify blind spots, and engage in more effective and sustainable planning on mixed migration. It also allowed participants to discuss specific policy area that would require further analysis, perhaps within the framework of future thematic meetings. For example, following the COVID-19 pandemic, the Rabat Process has been exploring the possibilities of integrating a crisis scenario component to the more traditional approaches to scenario -building.

The outcome of the discussions among the participating partner countries and stakeholders was compiled in a final report outlining several scenario matrixes on future mixed migration drivers and outcomes for 2030 that were explored during the workshop, as well as the key elements and tools of MMC’s scenario approach. The document includes a synthesis of the current West African mixed migration context followed by a trend analysis on relatively certain factors impacting migration in 2030. It also examines the data collected through the scenario workshop - from the key migration stakeholders from the region - on major ‘uncertainties’ impacting the future of migration and their consequences for mobility.

The MMC is a leading source for independent and high-quality data, information, research and analysis on mixed migration. Through the provision of credible evidence and expertise, the MMC aims to support agencies, policy makers and practitioners to make well-informed decisions, to positively impact global and regional policies, to contribute to protection and assistance responses for people on the move and to stimulate forward-thinking in the sector responding to mixed migration. For more information on the MMC, please visit their website: http://www.mixedmigration.org/.

Resources:

Final report: Results from the scenario-building workshop on Mixed Migration in West Africa in 2030